Woke in anticipation at 0700 on Monday – downloaded GRIB gfs files and reviewed weather. Not encouraging. Email from Chris Tibbs which gave a professional overview ‘South veering southwest 5 to 7, occasionally gale 8, perhaps severe gale 9, veering northwest 4 or 5 later. This mornings forecast charts look slightly worse than the ones of yesterday with the low deeper over the Irish Sea tomorrow. We will have ncreasing winds in the Channel this afternoon and tonight. The better your progress the stronger the wind. The wind is expected to build to gale force early tomorrow morning as the area of low pressure moves from about 50N 20W 989mb tonight, to be near the Fasnet Rock 982mb midday tomorrow.
A front will arrive at Lands End this evening about 2100 with heavy rain and this rain will move east to be at Portland by about midnight.
I have real concerns that the deepening of the low will produce winds in excess of 40 knots in the western Channel and the Irish Sea. The 1979 Fastnet storm had a low deepening to 976mb, this is forecast to deepen to 982mb. My advice is not to do the race – or if you decide to start, to seriously consider taking shelter tonight until the depression has passed through. The met office charts show severe weather likely although the American GFS charts show less wind. If you do decide to start please make every effort to update your forecasts. Expected winds (times GMT wind speed knots, gusts likely to be 33% higher than average wind strength).’
Team discussion ensued – all gave their varying opinions. Decisions taken – bearing in mind boat, crew, our interpretation of weather, and possibility of safe havens – to go.
